The hazards posed by heavy precipitation events increase with higher intensity and longer-duration storms. These results highlight that understanding large-scale dynamical drivers as well as the thermodynamical response of storms is essential for accurate projections of changes to storm hazards, needed for future climate adaptation. Importantly, the largest storms that pose increased flood risks are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. ![]() However, both simulations show increases to peak precipitation intensity, total precipitation volume, and temporal clustering, suggesting increasing risks from mesoscale-convective systems in the future. ![]() The UK Met Office projections indicate more frequent, smaller, and slower-moving storms, while ETH-Zürich projections show fewer, larger, and faster-moving storms. Here we assess end-of-century changes to their characteristics in two convection-permitting climate simulations from the UK Met Office and ETH-Zürich that both use the high Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario but different approaches to represent atmospheric changes with global warming and different models. Larger organised convective storms (mesoscale-convective systems) can lead to major flood events in Europe.
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